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bad news COVID-19 economic collapse economists Edward Moya Government Headline News Higher Taxes Hoax Intelwars jobless claims liars mass surveillance other shoe plandemic propaganda scamdemic TOTALITARIANISM travesty United States War winter

Waiting For The Other Shoe To Drop…

This article was originally published by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse Blog. 

Do you feel like another major crisis could erupt at any moment?  If so, you are certainly not alone.  Here in 2020, it has just been one thing after another, and we have come to expect the unexpected.

Right now, so many people that I am hearing from are anticipating that more big trouble is just around the corner, but as we wait for “the other shoe to drop”, economic conditions all over the United States continue to rapidly deteriorate.  For example, on Thursday we learned that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week was the highest in four months

The US job market continues to suffer, and Thursday brought more bad news. Another 885,000 people filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week — an increase from the week prior and higher than the 800,000 claims that economists were expecting.

The latest figures, which are adjusted for seasonal factors and reported by the Labor Department, are particularly grim since last week’s numbers were revised up to 862,000. And even before the revision, that week had been the highest level since mid-September.

This isn’t how the numbers were supposed to be trending.

For four of the past five weeks, we have seen the number of new unemployment claims go up, and experts are warning that we should expect things to get even worse as we head into winter

‘US weekly jobless claims continue to head in the wrong direction,” Edward Moya, an analyst at the currency trading firm OANDA, wrote in a research note.

‘The labor market outlook is bleak as the winter wave of the virus is going to lead to more shutdowns.”

Could we soon see more than a million Americans filing new claims for unemployment each week like we did earlier in the pandemic?

To put this in perspective, the previous all-time record prior to 2020 was just 695,000, and that old record was set all the way back in 1982.

We absolutely shattered that record once COVID-19 started spreading widely in the United States, and we have been above that old record every single week throughout this entire pandemic.

Just think about that.

We are seeing numbers that we have never seen before in all of U.S. history every single week, and now they are starting to climb higher once again thanks to the new lockdowns.

In addition, the number of Americans that are collecting unemployment aid from two major federal programs is also on the rise again

The number of jobless people who are collecting aid from one of the two federal extended-benefit programs – the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, which offers coverage to gig workers and others who don´t qualify for traditional benefits – surged to 9.2 million from 8.6 million for the week that ended Nov. 28.

But the number of people receiving aid under the second program – the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program, which provides 13 weeks of federal benefits to people who have exhausted their state aid – also rose from 4.5 million to 4.8 million.

By now, the “recovery” was supposed to be in full gear, but instead, major companies keep laying off more workers at an astounding pace.

For example, on Thursday we learned that Coca-Cola will be eliminating 12 percent of their entire U.S. workforce…

Coca-Cola is planning to cut 2,200 jobs, including 1,200 in the United States, as it faces declining sales during the pandemic.

In the United States, where there were about 10,400 employees at the end of last year, the cuts represent roughly 12% of the workforce. In Atlanta, where the company is headquartered, about 500 jobs are being eliminated, the company said Thursday.

Coca-Cola wouldn’t be doing this if the U.S. economy was about “to turn a corner”.

All of these big corporations that are letting workers go can see what is about to happen, and they are slimming their payrolls in an attempt to make it through the coming storm.

Meanwhile, Congress is getting close to approving yet another “stimulus package”, and the Federal Reserve is promising to do whatever it takes to support the financial markets.

Trillions upon trillions of dollars are being slammed into the system, and as a result, M2 is up more than 60 percent so far this year.

In other words, our money supply has been increasing at an almost vertical rate in 2020.

Back in November, I included a chart in an article that I wrote which shows exactly what I am talking about.  If you are not one of my regular readers, you can find that article right here.

For many years, many of us have been warning that hyperinflation would arrive someday.

But now we can stop warning because the process has actually started.

Other industrialized nations have also been flooding their systems with new money, and this is really starting to drive up food prices all over the globe.  The following comes from Zero Hedge

The reason this has suddenly become a hot topic is because while overall inflation remains subdued (we will spare a discussion here of why the CPI is purposefully distorted to stay as low as possible – readers can catch up herehere and here), food inflation has been on a tear in recent months. In fact, it has gotten so high that earlier this week Goldman published a report looking at “The Recent Spike In Food Inflation”, in which it noted that “in recent months, inflation has risen and surprised to the upside across a number of major EM economies (e.g. Turkey, South Africa, India, Brazil andRussia).” According to Goldman, one of the main drivers of these increases has been higher food inflation, which has coincided with a sharp increase in the price of some key agricultural commodities (e.g. grains, oils and soybeans).”

Sadly, this is just the beginning.  Eventually, the food riots which have already started on the other side of the planet will start happening in the western world too.

And as hungry people become increasingly desperate, I believe that eventually, companies will start putting armed guards on food trucks.

We aren’t quite there yet, thankfully, but things are really starting to get crazy out there.

A few days ago I went to the supermarket again, and I really tried to economize and get things that were on sale, but I still spent more than 260 dollars on one cart of food.

Just one cart!

As the cost of living continues to soar into the stratosphere, many American families are going to discover that they are no longer able to afford enough food for the week.

And once millions upon millions of Americans get desperately hungry, that is when we will see absolutely insane economic riots in this country.

All of these things are coming, and we definitely will not have to wait very long at all for “the other shoe to drop”.

***Michael’s new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.***

About the Author: My name is Michael Snyder and my brand new book entitled “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America” is now available on Amazon.com.  In addition to my new book, I have written four others that are available on Amazon.com including The Beginning Of The EndGet Prepared Now, and Living A Life That Really Matters. (#CommissionsEarned)  By purchasing the books you help to support the work that my wife and I are doing, and by giving it to others you help to multiply the impact that we are having on people all over the globe.  I have published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse BlogEnd Of The American Dream, and The Most Important News, and the articles that I publish on those sites are republished on dozens of other prominent websites all over the globe.  I always freely and happily allow others to republish my articles on their own websites, but I also ask that they include this “About the Author” section with each article.  The material contained in this article is for general information purposes only, and readers should consult licensed professionals before making any legal, business, financial, or health decisions.  I encourage you to follow me on social media on FacebookTwitter, and Parler, and anyway that you can share these articles with others is a great help.  During these very challenging times, people will need hope more than ever before, and it is our goal to share the gospel of Jesus Christ with as many people as we possibly can.

The post Waiting For The Other Shoe To Drop… first appeared on SHTF Plan – When It Hits The Fan, Don't Say We Didn't Warn You.

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authority buying everything Debt DICTATORSHIP dollar crash economic collapse Federal Reserve fiat currency Government Great Depression Greg Mannarino Headline News Intelwars jobless claims Money Creation rapid decline stock market climbs totalitarian unemployment United States economy

Greg Mannarino: “We Are In Economic Collapse!”

We have reached the point of no return. The meltdown of the United States economy is continuing and rapidly accelerating says market analyst, Greg Mannarino.

Greg Mannarino: It’s Time To “Wake Up” Because “You haven’t Seen ANYTHING Yet!”

Mannarino begins by explaining the jobless numbers that came in last week (885,000) are a telltale sign of the destruction caused by governments over the samdemic. “We are in an economic collapse! Full on, Great Depression-era with regard to unemployment numbers.”  And all of this is happening as the stock market climbs higher on the creation of new fiat currency, or debt.

We are going to go through a massive debt crisis, Mannarino continues.

“We’re gonna run into a crisis of the debt, okay, that you cannot possibly fathom! A shutdown of the global economy way worse than what we’re seeing now. Because economic activity is going to be deliberately STOPPED. Just…it’s gonna stop. No cash in the bank. No cash out of the ATMs. No transactions.” -Greg Mannarino

The federal reserve is buying everything. “This is it. We are there right now,” says Mannarino. “Some people out here are hurting a lot worse than others are. And with this epic number, 885,000 initial jobless claims, I mean, you don’t…I’m speechless. I am speechless here! We have never seen in the hisory of our country, more people falling into poverty at a faster rate than we are seeing now. We’re worse, way worse than the Great Depression, but you’re not supposed to know that. You’re not allowed to know this stuff…only a liar of the highest order could put a message [that we’re in a V-shaped recovery] to the American people.”

Greg Mannarino: “They Want People Desperate. People Aren’t Desperate Enough”

Greg Mannarino: The Economic Collapse Is Here

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consensus consumer crash disposable income economic collapse Economy Financial Headline News Income Industries Intelwars Job growth jobless claims labor market Market Crash modern monetary theory money unemployment wipe out the middle class

November Payrolls Preview: It’s About To Get Ugly Again

This article was originally published by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge. 

After several months of blistering job growth, economists expect the rate of US jobs growth to cool sharply in November, with consensus looking for 478k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the economy (well below the 638k seen in October) due to the broad-based resurgence of the coronavirus and related business restrictions which are consistent with a deceleration in job growth; the jobless rate is seen declining by 0.1ppts to 6.8%, although analysts will be paying attention to the U6 gauge of underemployment as well as the participation rate.

The reason for the declining expectations is that, as NewsSquawk writes, labor market gauges have mostly been on the soft side in November; ADP’s gauge of payrolls expectations missed the consensus in November, lowering the bar for the official NFP data; initial jobless claims data ticked up in the BLS survey reference week while continuing claims did not fall as much as analysts had expected; ISM reports showed that labor market conditions in the manufacturing sector fell back into contraction territory, while the services gauge showed only modest improvement.

On the positive side, there will be strong growth in the construction industry and in trucking, courier, and delivery categories, reflecting favorable weather and the accelerating shift to e-commerce this holiday season. The latter effect should help offset the drag from declining mall traffic in the retail. Additionally, Markit’s gauge of services employment in November was positive, with the data compiler noting that firms were taking on staff at a rate not seen since the survey began in 2009. Another bright spot was the Challenger job cuts data, which fell sequentially, although remains still ugly on a y/y basis; but even then, Challenger warned that hiring plans for the holidays were lower than last year, and the report warns about consumers’ lower disposable income, which could hit spending and pressure the labor market in the months ahead.

The data will be released at 0830 EST; here is what to expect courtesy of NewsSquawk:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls exp. 481k (range -100k to +0.975k, prev. +638k);
  • Unemployment rate exp. 6.8% (range: 6.0-7.3%, prev. 6.9%);
  • U6 unemployment (prev. 12.1%);
  • Participation rate (prev. 61.7%);
  • Private payrolls exp. +587k (prev. +906k);
  • Manufacturing payrolls exp. +40 (prev. +38k);
  • Government payrolls (prev. -268k);
  • Average earnings m/m exp. +0.1% (prev. +0.1%);
  • Average earnings y/y exp. +4.3% (prev. +4.5%);
  • Average workweek hours exp. 34.8hrs (prev. 34.8hrs).

ADP: The private payroll data from ADP reported 307k jobs were added to the US labor market in November, missing the consensus +410k, although the prior was revised up 39k to 404k. Although the headline was disappointing in November, with the pace of gains slowing, the report said job growth was still positive across all industries and sizes. Analysts have noted that ADP’s gauge of the labor market has undershot the official BLS numbers since the COVID pandemic, although some note that the margins of the miss have become smaller.

JOBLESS CLAIMS: Initial jobless claims data which coincide with the BLS survey period saw claims tick up to 748k from 711k (the consensus expected a little changed 707k); continuing claims data for the survey period, however, fell to 6.07mln from 6.37mln, a little short of the consensus, which expected a fall to 6.02mln. Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the rise in claims that week was not a one-time fluke, and was more likely the start of an upward trend that would persist until the COVID wave subsides. Much depends on the extent of the inevitable upward kick which will be triggered by Thanksgiving gatherings, but that still means that layoffs could continue to rise through the year-end. The consultancy said the path for the labor market would depend on what extent COVID cases ticked up in wake of the Thanksgiving holidays, where any significant rise could lead to layoffs continuing to rise through the end of the year. Taking a broader view, heading into the October payrolls report, the four-week moving average was around 813k, and that fell to 744k in the BLS reference period; that number has continued to edge lower in the weeks that have followed, auguring well for the jobs market ahead – and accordingly, any payrolls upside surprise may therefore be given more credence by traders.

MANUFACTURING SURVEYS: The manufacturing ISM report reported worsening labor market conditions in November, with the employment sub-index falling nearly 5 points to 48.4 points, slipping back into contraction after just one month of printing above 50.0 again; with that said, ISM noted that the employment index was still 20.9 points above the low of 27.5 points seen in April. Nevertheless, the report said that the continued strong new-order levels and expanding backlogs indicated potential employment strength for the remainder of Q4, and qualitative commentary noted that for the third straight month, and with increased frequency, panelists’ comments indicate that significantly more companies are hiring or attempting to hire than those reducing labor forces.

SERVICES SURVEYS: While most other labor market gauges in the month were erring on the soft side, metrics in the services sector – which accounts for over 70% of US GDP – improved. The ISM services PMI’s employment sub-index saw an uptick in the month, rising 1.4 points to 51.5 to print the third month above 50.0; respondents noted that they were unable to fill vacant positions with qualified applicants, and they were having to overstaff due to high turnover and people being quarantined. And this better showing was also reflected in Markit’s data too, with the data revealing that the recent improvement in demand and the brightening outlook encouraged firms to take on extra staff at a rate not seen since the survey began in 2009, underscoring how increased optimism is fuelling investment and expansion, boding well for the payrolls data.

JOB CUTS: US-based employers announced 64,797 job cuts, the second-lowest monthly total for 2020, according to Challenger’s data (-19.7% m/m, +45.4% y/y); in 2020 YTD, US employers have announced 2.23mln job cuts (+298% vs 2019 YTD), the highest annual total on record. The report noted that the fall in disposable income seen in October will have an impact on spending, which will lead to further cuts ahead. ‘Market conditions’ were cited as the main reason for November’s job cuts, followed by ‘demand downturn’, then ‘restructuring’, and only then ‘COVID’ (though COVID still leads all reasons this year, with over 1mln). The report also said that companies announced 185.5k hiring plans in November, bringing the YTD total to 3.11mln; of those just under 800k are related to seasonal hiring plans, which are down y/y when compared to 2019 levels.

ARGUING FOR A WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:

The Third Wave. The resurgence of the coronavirus produced a series of business restrictions and reduced demand for food services. While national job growth remained very strong during the second wave in the summer, it nonetheless weighed on affected states, with SunBelt service rehiring slowing sharply in July and August (see Exhibit 1). Given the increased breadth and severity of the third wave, we expect a more visible impact on the national data. And while the impact is likely to be larger in the December jobs report  (released on January 8th), indoor dining closures in Illinois at the beginning of the month and nearly state-wide measures in California by the middle of the month argue for softness in leisure and other services employment in tomorrow’s report.

Big Data. High-frequency data on the labor market softened on net, averaging just +30k across six measures (median +130k), as shown in Exhibit 2. Of note, only the Dallas Fed population survey is consistent with a larger-than-expected gain—though we note it also correctly flagged the strength in last month’s report.

ADP. Private sector employment in the ADP report rose by 307k in November, below consensus expectations and consistent with slowing job growth.

Census hiring. Census temporary workers are set to lower nonfarm job growth by around 90k in tomorrow’s report.

ARGUING FOR A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED REPORT:

Construction sector. Favorable weather in early November coupled with the surgen in demand for single-family housing argues for a sizeable gain in the construction category in tomorrow’s report (we assume roughly +100k, mom sa).

Job availability. The Conference Board labor differential—the difference between the percent of respondents saying jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get — rose further into expansionary territory (to +7.2 in November from +7.1 in October and +3.3 in September).

Jobless claims. Initial jobless claims declined in the November payroll month but at a slower pace than during the summer, averaging 744k per week vs. 826k in October (or -82k mom, vs. three-month-average change of -187k). By week, initial claims rebounded in the first half of November, consistent with possible temporary layoffs due to the virus. While continuing claims fell sharply between the payroll survey weeks (-1.7mn), this decline partly reflects expiring regular-state-programs as opposed to reemployment, and we place less weight than usual on this indicator. Across all programs (including emergency benefits), continuing claims fell by 0.9mn(vs. -2.5mn in October, NSA).

Holiday hiring. Non-seasonally-adjusted retail payrolls have risen by 460k in the last three Novembers (on average), but with mall traffic down sharply due to the virus, we believe retailers are hiring fewer seasonal workers in 2020. While we assume a roughly 100k seasonally adjusted drag from this channel, we expect a partial offset from trucking, warehousing, and delivery categories due to accelerating e-commerce spending. Job growth in those categories averaged +46k jobs over the last three months (includes federal post office), and we expect a stable or faster pace in November.

Employer surveys. Business activity surveys declined on the net in November, and the employment components of our survey trackers remained stable in a narrowly-expansionary territory (non-manufacturing +0.4pt to 50.5; manufacturing-0.1pt to 54.4).

Job cuts. Announced layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas fell by 7% in November after falling by 38% in October (mom, sa by GS). They remain 45% above their November 2019 levels.

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Economy coronavirus Intelwars jobless claims Under 1 million unemployment weekly jobless claims

New weekly jobless claims drop below 1 million for the first time since the start of the pandemic

For the first time since early March — or nearly 5 months — the number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits last week dropped to under 1 million, according to Department of Labor statistics.

What are the details?

The Labor Department news release, posted Thursday morning, recorded 963,000 weekly initial jobless claims, a figure that beat economists’ predictions of 1.1 million.

CNBC reported the figure as “a sign that the labor market is continuing its recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.”

“In the week ending August 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 963,000, a decrease of 228,000 from the previous week’s revised level,” the news release said, adding: “The 4-week moving average was 1,252,750, a decrease of 86,250 from the previous week’s revised average.”

Image Source: Department of Labor

The new report marked the end of a 20-week streak in which the new weekly jobless claims topped 1 million as many Americans were put out of work due to the coronavirus pandemic and resulting lockdowns.

Jobless claims reached a peak in late March, when a whopping 6.6 million Americans filed for first-time unemployment benefits. Since then, the number has been dropping steadily.

Yet while the steady decline in new weekly jobless claims is promising news for the economy, it’s important to keep in mind that prior to the pandemic, weekly jobless claims consistently came in below 250,000.

What else?

CNBC found that the number of continued claims, which describes those collecting unemployment benefits for at least two weeks, decreased, as well, for the week ending August 1. That number dropped to approximately 15.5 million, its lowest level since mid-April.

Some economists say the pair of decreases may also be fueled by the fact that federal enhanced unemployment benefits in the form of a $600 weekly check have been suspended since the end of July.

“We cannot be sure or not if this is good news for the recovery or whether it is the lapse in those $600 weekly checks from the federal government that is now a disincentive for some newly jobless workers to file,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist for MUFG Union Bank, according to Yahoo News.

“Any way you look at it, the party may be over for those getting government assistance after being made redundant after this recession,” he added.

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Coronavirus COVID-19 Department of Labor Intelwars jobless claims unemployment

Another 2.1 million people filed for unemployment last week, bringing the 10-week total to more than 40 million

Roughly a quarter of the total U.S. workforce has been put out of work since the COVID-19 pandemic caused government officials to shut down most or all businesses deemed non-essential, with another 2.1 million Americans filing jobless claims over the past week, Politico reported.

Another 1.2 million people applied for unemployment benefits under a temporary program for people who are typically ineligible for unemployment, such as self-employed workers. There may be some overlap of people who applied for both. Overall, 40.8 million Americans have filed for unemployment in the past 10 weeks.

Andrew Stettner, a senior fellow at The Century Foundation, told Politico that about half the people who have applied for benefits since the coronavirus shutdowns began have received them, while others are stuck waiting as overwhelmed state agencies with sometimes unreliable websites and processes try to keep up.

A previous COVID-19 relief package boosted unemployment benefits temporarily, and a University of Chicago study showed that more than two-thirds of people receiving unemployment may be getting more in benefits than they would’ve gotten from their jobs. The relief package added a $600 per week supplement to the standard benefits.

About 20% of jobless people could get unemployment benefits that are double the amount of their lost earnings, the study found. One potential problem with this system is that unemployed workers might get more money than normal for not working, while workers who are considered essential don’t get any hazard pay despite potential exposure to COVID-19. From MarketWatch:

For example, a janitor at a still-open business might not get hazard pay, but an unemployed janitor could get 158% of his or her prior wage, the study said. (Researchers looked at U.S. Census data on job salaries and plugged the numbers into an unemployment benefits calculator they built. They said they compared their own estimates on statewide average benefits from likely jobless claimants against average benefits from actual claimants, as reported by the Department of Labor.)

These expanded unemployment benefits will end at the end of July unless Congress passes another relief bill to extend them.

Democrats are interested in extending the boosted benefits, while many Republicans oppose an extension because they fear the benefits are so high that they may discourage people from trying to reenter the workforce as quickly as possible.

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Coronavirus COVID-19 Intelwars jobless claims unemployment unemployment rate

Unemployment skyrockets with 6.6 million new claims in the past week; coronavirus lockdowns set to last at least another month

The economic fallout from COVID-19 lockdowns continues to spiral seemingly out of control, and Thursday’s jobless numbers show that an additional 6.6 million Americans filed new unemployment claims from March 22 through March 28.

Last week, the Department of Labor report showed 3.3 million people filed new jobless claims, a shocking number that exceeded the previous record by nearly 3 million. This week, the record was doubled — and some economists believe even 6.6. million to be an underestimation. NBC News reported:

Still, some economists said the actual number of unemployed could be much higher, since many applicants had experienced trouble filing a claim, as state labor departments became overwhelmed.

“These are numbers that are way out of the range that we have seen,” Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America, told NBC News. “During the financial crisis, we were seeing a peak of about 650,000 [first-time applications] a week.”

The numbers are alarming enough on their own, but they become more ominous in light of the fact that public health experts are predicting that the worst of the coronavirus outbreak in America is yet to come, and the lockdowns in place in almost every state are likely to extend at least until the end of April.

And even the April 30 end date suggested by President Donald Trump isn’t set in stone, rather, it’s an estimate based on data models of a date when the situation can be re-evaluated and businesses potentially reopened.

Last week, Congress passed a stimulus bill to send money to individuals and families, increase unemployment benefits, and create financial means for small businesses and corporations to keep people employed. However, it could be several weeks before those benefits reach those who need them.

The Department of Labor is set to release full month of March unemployment numbers Friday, and NBC News reported that surveyed economists expect to see that the economy lost approximately 100,000 jobs, ending about a decade of job creation.

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Coronavirus COVID-19 Intelwars jobless claims unemployment

Jobless claims hit record 3.28M this week, doubling projections and far outpacing Great Recession highs

Nearly 3.3 million people filed new jobless claims over the past week, marking an astronomical jump from the previous week and painting a grim picture of the economic damage caused by coronavirus lockdowns nationwide, according to CNBC.

Projections vs. Reality: Dow Jones projected about 1.5 million new claims, which in itself would’ve been a massive increase over the 282,000 new claims the week before.

Individual economists had been predicting that the reality might be much worse, and they were proven correct Thursday morning when the actual number was 3.28 million.

Context: During the Great Recession, the highest number of weekly jobless claims was 665,000. The all-time record is 695,000 from October 1982.

Don’t panic? Fed chairman Jerome Powell tried to reassure people Thursday morning that the spike is a short-term reflection of the circumstances, and that recovery could happen quickly.

“This is a unique situation. People need to understand, this is not a typical downturn,” Powell said on NBC’s “Today.” “At a certain point, we will get the spread of the virus under control. At that time, confidence will return, businesses will open again, people will come back to work. So you may well see a significant rise in unemployment, a significant decline in economic activity. But there can also be a good rebound on the other side of that.”

But when? Powell’s message might seem more encouraging if there were some clear signs about when business might return to normal in America. But right now, the number of cases and deaths from the coronavirus are still rising rapidly, and indications from public health officials are that the U.S. is still has a ways to go.

“You’ve got to be realistic,” said infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci on CNN. “And you’ve got to understand that you don’t make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline. So you’ve got to respond, in what you see happen. And if you keep seeing this acceleration, it doesn’t matter what you say. One week, two weeks, three weeks—you’ve got to go with what the situation on the ground is.”

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