After a record surge in cases of COVID-19 have been reported, Madrid, Spain expands its lockdown to more than 1 million people in an effort to stop the “second wave.” It is here, and we are being backed into a corner.
Yesterday, the Financial Times published a deep dive comparing Madrid’s handling of the virus to New York City’s. It appears some Bank of America analysts have followed that up with a chart comparing the various ‘waves’ of outbreaks, Sputnikreported.
The mainstream media continues to report on the surge in coronavirus cases, even though this “disease” is not nearly as deadly as the flu, by their own statistics. Yet, we are supposed to somehow buy into a second lockdown. Pay attention to what mainstream media focuses on and you will get an idea of what the ruling class has in store for us. It looks like they are ginning up the fear for a second lockdown, and it could happen as soon as October.
They are attempting to manufacture your consent to be screwed over once again and using fear to do it. Please don’t fall for it:
Now, Europe’s biggest economies are struggling to bring the coronavirus back under control as hospitalizations and newly confirmed cases soar. After announcing new curbs earlier this month, Madrid’s local government is expected to decide on Friday whether to expand restrictions on movement within the city of Madrid and its suburbs, with nearly 40% of ICU beds in the region around the Spanish capital filled with COVID-19 patients. France earlier this week just expanded restrictions in and around Marseilles.
Poland, which has continued to report record after record in terms of new cases, is expected to introduce new restrictions next week to combat the virus. –ZeroHedge
If you think this won’t be coming back to the United States, think again. People willingly locked themselves in their homes the first time, and far too many have yet to wake up to the reality of the New World Order bein rolled out under the film of this scamdemic hoax.
Keep your eyes and ears open, stay alert, continue to prepare, and don’t live in fear. We know there’s no reason for another lockdown, but those pushing the agenda of the elites on the world are making sure we at least respect another one. Whether or not we comply and go along with this tyrannical enslavement of humanity will be up to us.
Several years ago, when conventional wisdom dictated that to push inflation higher and jumpstart lethargic economies, central banks have to push rates so low as to make saving punitive and force consumers to go out and spend their hard-earned savings, several central banks including the ECB, SNB and BOJ crossed into the monetary twilight zone by lowering overnight rates negative.
Then, year after year, we would hear from the likes of Kuroda and Draghi how the BOJ and ECB will continue and even extend their insane monetary policy, which now includes the purchase of 80% of all Japanese ETFs…
… until the central banks hit their inflation targets of 2%.
And yet, year after year, the BOJ would not only not hit its inflation target but appeared to drift ever lower, as did the ECB, SNB, and any other bank that had gone NIRP, confounding all economists and central bankers: why has this happened if rates were negative? Why were consumers not taking their money out of the bank and spending it, pushing inflation higher?
Nobody had an answer, until in late 2015, we offered a glimpse into what was structurally flawed with this “model”: using a report by Bank of America, we showed that not only had household savings rates not declined in countries with negative rates, they had in fact risen. There was a simple reason for this, as the BIS had highlighted: ultra-low rates may perversely be driving a greater propensity for consumers to save as retirement income becomes more uncertain.
What logically followed from this is that inflation would also track rates lower, resulting in a crushing blow to economic orthodoxy where the only weapon central banks had left to spark an economic – read inflationary – recovery was to ease monetary conditions even more in hopes that eventually they would drop low enough to spark the long-awaited recovery.
It never happened, even though amusingly it was all the way back in 2015 that we predicted – correctly in retrospect – just what the monetary endgame is:
Fear not: when even “moar” QE and NIRP do not work, and the economists of the ECB admit the “monetary twilight zone” was a disaster, there is one last “tool” they can and will use – helicopters. Because when it comes to printing money, whether in digital reserve format, or physical paper format, there is literally no limit how much can and will be created to achieve what is the endgame of the current monetary dead end: the total destruction of fiat as a store of wealth in order to preserve the global equity tranche while wiping away a few hundred trillion in debt.
Thanks to COVID-19, we have now moved beyond merely the “twilight” and are now in the “helicopter” zone.
But what about the relationship between rates and savings, and by extension inflation? After all, that is the topic of this post. Well, we can now confirm that our intuition from 2015 that negative rates are not only not inflationary but outright deflationary, and encourage consumers to save even more, was correct all along.
Below we post a chart from the latest Research Investment Committee report by BofA titled “Stagnation, stagflation or elevation”, which with just one image blows up everything that is flawed with monetary policy. It shows that while lower rates indeed stimulate spending and lead to lower savings, this effect peaks at around 4% and then goes negative. In fact, the lower yields – and rates – drop below 4% – not to mention to 0% or below – the lower the propensity to spend and the higher the savings rate!
There is another reason why this chart of such epic importance: it confirms what so many have known but were afraid to voice as it ran against decades of flawed economic theory: it demonstrates without a shadow of a doubt, that hyper-easy monetary policy is not inflationary but is deflationary. Which is catastrophic for central banks, who publicly state that the only reason they are pursuing ultra-easy monetary policy which includes QE and negative rates, is not to goose the market higher (even though by now we all know that’s the real reason) but to stimulate inflation.
This is how Bank of America summarizes this stunning observation:
As low growth & inflation make low-risk-asset income scarce (e.g. from government bonds), households are forced to reduce consumption and increase savings in order to meet retirement goals.
Forced saving further depresses demand in a vicious cycle.
This means that the lower (and more negative) central banks push rates, the lower (not higher) the spending, the higher (not lower) the savings rate, the lower the inflation, the higher the disinflation (or outright deflation), which in turn forces central banks to cut rates even more, to add QE, yield curve control, buy junk bonds, buy ETFs, or pursue any of a host of other monetary policies that are even more devastating to consumer psychology, forcing even more savings, resulting in even more disinflation, causing even more intervention by central banks in what is, without doubt, the most diabolical feedback loop of modern monetary policy and economics.
Said otherwise, monetary easing is deflationary. Let that sink in.
In effect, what the chart above shows, is that once trapped by NIRP, there is no way out, and the more central banks pursue inflation to offset deflation via monetary policy, the more pronounced the deflationary outcome resulting in even more central bank deflationary “stimulus”!
Meanwhile, as central banks spark even more deflation with their policies, the one place where all those trillions in liquidity they conjure out of thin air ends up in, is what was once known as the “market” and is now, in the words of BofA the “fake market” or as DB calls it “administered markets“, leading to ever-higher fake asset prices, and ever greater wealth and income inequality, which ultimately tears the fabric of society itself.
In fact, just look at what’s happening to America right now: rioting, looting, pillaging, Americans fighting other Americans and while the media is spinning self-serving narratives that frame the bad guy as Trump, or China, or Russia, or this political party, or that, or some social movement, the truth is that the culprit behind the upcoming collapse of the US is just one, the same one that Thomas Jefferson warned the brand new nation about more than two centuries ago:
I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. The issuing power of currency shall be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.
If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.”
And sure enough, looking at what’s happening in any major city today, we see a lot of homeless and desperate people. And as a further reminder, the Fed – as the Bank of England was so kind to remind us – was and remains a private institution, no matter its claims otherwise.
Now if only someone could explain to all those millions of angry Americans that the source of virtually all of society’s ills is to be found in the building below (which just happens to house an unknown amount of freshly printed dollar bills), it would be a much-needed start to the reset the US so desperately needs to avoid complete destruction.
Even though most U.S. states have begun the process of “reopening” their economies, the unprecedented tsunami of job losses that we have been experiencing just continues to roll on. On Thursday, we learned that another 2.4 million Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits during the previous week, and that brings the grand total for this pandemic to a whopping 38.6 million.
To get an idea of just how badly this swamps what we witnessed during the last recession, take a look at this chart. This is the biggest spike in unemployment in all of U.S. history by a very wide margin, and analysts are expecting another huge number once again next week.
After my father got out of the U.S. Navy, he worked as a math teacher for many years, and throughout my life, I have always had a deep appreciation for numbers.
And in this case, the numbers are telling us that we are facing something truly horrific.
During the month of February, the number of Americans that were currently employed peaked at 152,463,000.
If you take the 38.6 million workers that have filed for unemployment benefits during this crisis and divide it by 152,463,000, you will find that it gives you a figure of more than 25 percent.
In other words, more than one out of every four jobs in the United States is already gone, and more job losses will be coming week after week.
And of course, not everyone that loses a job actually files a claim for unemployment benefits. So the true percentage of Americans that have lost a job would be even higher.
It had been hoped that the unemployment numbers would begin to normalize once states began “reopening” their economies, but so far that is not really materializing.
Georgia’s early move to start easing stay-at-home restrictions nearly a month ago has done little to stem the state’s flood of unemployment claims — illustrating how hard it is to bring jobs back while consumers are still afraid to go outside.
Weekly applications for jobless benefits have remained so elevated that Georgia now leads the country in terms of the proportion of its workforce applying for unemployment assistance. A staggering 40.3 percent of the state’s workers — two out of every five — has filed for unemployment insurance payments since the coronavirus pandemic led to widespread shutdowns in mid-March, a POLITICO review of Labor Department data shows.
Our politicians really didn’t understand what they were doing when they started locking down state after state. Coming into 2020, the U.S. economy was in an extremely fragile state and was already moving rapidly toward recession territory, and now the fear of COVID-19 has burst all of our economic bubbles.
The U.S. economy is now in a death spiral, and a survey that was just conducted by the Census Bureau came up with some numbers that are simply eye-popping…
Nearly half of Americans say that either their incomes have declined or they live with another adult who has lost pay through a job loss or reduced hours, the Census Bureau said in survey data released Wednesday.
More than one-fifth of Americans said they had little or no confidence in their ability to pay the next month´s rent or mortgage on time, the survey found.
Already, we are beginning to see mortgage delinquencies rise to very alarming levels.
Mortgage delinquencies surged by 1.6 million in April, the largest single-month jump in history, according to a report from Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider. The data includes both homeowners past due on mortgage payments who aren’t in forbearance, along with those in forbearance plans and who didn’t make a mortgage payment in April.
At 6.45%, the national delinquency rate nearly doubled from 3.06% in March, the largest single-month increase recorded, and nearly three times the prior record for a single month during the height of the financial crisis in late 2008, Black Knight said.
Sadly, the truth is that this is only going to get worse.
The “enhanced unemployment benefits” that Congress recently passed have been helping many unemployed Americans to pay their mortgages, but now it appears that President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell do not intend to extend those benefits past the July deadline. They are concerned that those benefits have been so generous that they have been discouraging many Americans from going back to work, and they are quite right about that.
Unfortunately, it isn’t just homeowners that have been missing payments.
At this point, the entire commercial real estate industry is on the precipice of a meltdown as rent payments and mortgage payments are being “skipped” all over the nation on a widespread basis. On Thursday, we learned that even the owners of The Mall of America have been skipping their mortgage payments…
The biggest shopping center in the country, The Mall of America, has missed two months of payments on its $1.4 billion mortgage, a sign of just how much retail real estate owners are reeling during the coronavirus pandemic.
The mall, operated by private developers Triple Five Group, skipped mortgage payments in April and May, according to Trepp, a New York-based research firm that tracks the commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, market.
Unless Congress steps in and showers the entire commercial real estate industry with giant mountains of cash, I don’t see how an unprecedented meltdown can be averted.
It is going to be horrifying to watch, and it is going to absolutely dwarf anything that we witnessed in 2008.
Of course similar things can be said about the economy as a whole. At this point, Bank of America is projecting that U.S. GDP will fall 40 percent on an annualized basis during the second quarter of this year…
Now that banks have had a chance to evaluate the collapse in the economy in the post-covid world, a new round of GDP forecast revisions is coming, and it’s a doozy, with Bank of America spearheading the latest effort by slashing its Q2 GDP forecast from -30% to -40%.
Not without a trace of irony, BofA’s chief economist Michelle Meyer writes that “words cannot describe” the loss in economic output, which is “unlike anything we have seen in modern history.”
When Bank of America starts sounding like The Economic Collapse Blog, that is a clear sign that things are really starting to fall apart in a major way.
Now that restrictions are being lifted all over the nation, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is starting to rise again, and fear of this virus is going to paralyze economic activity for the foreseeable future.
And what most Americans still don’t understand is that what we have experienced so far is just the beginning…
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